Furthermore: Where the Headlines Take You

Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst...

If Russian academic Igor Panarin's newest theory is correct, in about 18 months Oregon will be part of China. This is part of a larger forecast Panarin made which predicts that the United States will dissolve into six spheres of influence under conditions most of us would liken to an apocalypse. Happy New Year! Thankfully, Panarin states that there is only a 45-55% chance of said event coming to fruition. Whew...

To be honest, Panarin's prognostication doesn't exactly fill me with dread. Call me an optimist but I'm not about to spend 2009 preparing for the end of the world as we know it. However, if that tingling, creepy, melancholy feeling is what you're looking (and as a fan of post-apocalyptic movies I could sympathize) try Cormac McCarthy's The Road. It's a quick read compared to his many of his other works and, like No Country for Old Men, it has recently been adapted for film. In fact, some of The Road's bleak, weather-beaten, exterior sequences were filmed in Oregon. Considering that we've been at Nature's mercy for the past couple weeks it might be easy to identify with this novel's protagonist and his efforts to save his son in a cold world, nearly burned away by an unnamed ecological disaster of unimaginable scale.

And, if things do happen to get worse here, we can count on Joshua Piven's The Complete Worst-Case Scenario Survival Handbook to provide a plan for escape. Illustrated with easy-to-read diagrams and including even (or perhaps, only) the most outlandish predicaments, Piven's book makes imagining being attacked by a bear fun again. I recommend the audio-book version as read by Mr. Burt Reynolds. Clocking in at a little less than two hours, it is the perfect duration for a trip through the Cascades or out to the coast and it will keep you in stitches as it prepares you for anything that could, but almost certainly won't, go wrong.

As far as secession from the union goes, Panarin's a step slow. Folks around these parts have been dabbling with that idea for a while now. Hypothetical nation-states have included; the Republic of Cascadia, the State of Lincoln and the State of Jefferson. If one needed convincing of the longevity of this concept I'd point them in the direction of The State of Jefferson a terrific collection of prose and photos by Bernita Tickner and Gail Fiorini-Jenner. The State of Jefferson is a causal look at life in Southern Oregon/Northern California and includes many playful observations such as the re-emergence of Etna, the official beer of the State of Jefferson. The real fun in The State of Jefferson is looking over its many photographs. Their quality and abundance makes imagining living in this place, both mythical and real, a joy.

The Big One

At 10 a.m. this morning Southern California held a region-wide earthquake drill. Can you picture it? Millions of people in schools, workplaces, at home, and on public transit interrupted their normal lives and pretended that there was a 7.8 magnitude earthquake on the San Andreas fault, lasting for about three minutes.

I spent a few years in Southern California as a child and I regarded earthquake drills as a major highlight of the school year – but an earthquake drill that everyone takes part in sounds even more fun! The part of me that is still 10 years old knows it would be exciting to participate in something big and important and out of the normal order of things. But, a drill this comprehensive also appeals to my super-responsible inner adult. Now that I'm grown up, I know that when I have to do difficult, stressful things, it really does pay to have had a chance to practice first. And it might be nice to have the experience of practicing for an earthquake with everyone in the whole metro area – neighbors, co-workers, friends and strangers alike. Perhaps we'll get our chance someday.

In the meantime, it's only responsible for me to remind you all that although earthquakes aren't as frequent here in Cascadia as they are along the San Andreas fault, we are prone to them, too.  And furthermore, ice storms, tornadoes, floods and volcanic eruptions have all occurred here within living memory.  The library has dozens of books that can help you hone your survival skills, but if you're interested in understanding why some folks do well in disasters, and other don't; or if you wonder why some disasters are just, well, more disastrous than others, I'd recommend The Unthinkable: Who Survives When Disaster Strikes–And Why. Author Amanda Ripley examines past disasters through stories of real people's experiences, and scientific studies of disaster survival and emergency management. Here's one startling conclusion she makes: mass panic in disasters is actually quite rare. For the most part, when unexpected horror arrives, people help each other and act in a way that is outwardly quite calm. And what's Ripley's advice about how you and I can prepare for a calamity? She asserts that one of smartest, most efficient things local government and disaster planning organizations can do to help make disasters less, um, disastrous, is to encourage people to meet their neighbors and co-workers. Give folks a chance to practice a little bit of “safety first” with each other, she says, and not only will they have experience to draw on when it's really important, but may have begun to establish relationships with each other. Basic competence and human cooperation are quite important in surviving the unthinkable, it seems.

If you're more of a historical bent and the news of Southern California's earthquake drill has got you thinking about the past, you might appreciate Denial of Disaster, by Gladys Hansen and Emmet Condon. It's about the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and fire, but instead of telling the story with narrative, statistics, or personal stories, it presents hundreds of previously unpublished photographs of the destruction following the earthquake, and of the fire, the looting, and the rebuilding of the city. The pictures are vivid, fascinating, appalling, and beautiful at the same time.